My Investment Predictions for 2026
“The squeeze is not worth the juice.”
--Reputedly said by John Nance Gardner while accepting the office of the Vice President.
Ending my spate of prediction blogs, here are some investment predictions for 2026 which I wrote up just before New Year’s but am just posting now:
1. TESLA: I am double short Tesla (and losing money at the moment). While Tesla has a lot of data about driving, I just don’t think their camera only “cheapo” technology will prove safe enough to be commercially viable for driverless taxi and autonomous driving. And I think they are far away from real robotic sales.
2. ALPHABET: And I am long Alphabet mostly because of Waymo. They actually have driverless cars that work. Now they just have to reduce their costs. And they have the best large language AI model. That also comes with Google’s very lucrative advertising, cloud, and search business.
3. AMAZON: I am long Amazon — people always have to buy stuff, and the cloud is an automatic cash register. Bezos is also the only good option other than Tesla for space competition.
4. ULITIES: It is perhaps late now, but I still like and hold old fashion utility companies as a stable AI play — they offer good dividend income while you wait for capital gains. If the AI data centers actually get built, it will be a boon to the utilities.
5. ENERGY: I read recently that the entire US energy industry (including oil and gas companies like Exxon or Chevron) combined are worth a fraction of just the price of Alphabet. That is likely a combination of overvaluation and undervaluation. I am still interested in MLP natural gas mid-stream pipelines. They are valuable in the age of AI and data center power demands. And they throw off a lot of income. I told my children they can sell them off when I die – just make sure they do so before the advent of unlimited fusion power.
6. CUMULATIVE PREFERRED STOCKS: How about the macro thing often not even mentioned— inflation? Mr. Trump’s understanding of economics is similar to Erdogan. We are going the way of Turkey. I am investing on that insight. The Trump Administration is outright cooking the books with the CPI by manipulating the housing component. I am long inflation. But no more TIPS or bonds. I like cumulative preferred stock for my fixed income.
7. SILVER: I also purchased significant amount of a physical silver ETF starting 10 years ago. With spot silver at $92.50 an ounce today, I am for the moment a seller of precious metals and miners into the market strength. They are not winnings until you cash them in. I still have significant precious metal holdings, but I would expect a pullback or stagnation of price unless inflation takes off after Mr. Trump follows through on his low interest rate and high spending plans. After the pullback, silver may yet have some more room to rise, even to near $200 an ounce. Silver has industrial uses in solar, batteries, and electronics. Data centers and EVs mean more silver demand is coming. Production is already less than demand. Silver has been a store of value history more than 5,000 years old. Of course, if you buy now, you clearly missed the early gains.
8. POT: The big growth industry in this decayed economy is pot. One other insight I have, however, is don’t buy pot stocks, at least the US companies. Only one of them has paid their federal taxes. They want Trump to forgive them and give them retroactive relief. His recent order to reclassify pot to level 3 controls did not do that. The tax penalties and interest on unpaid taxes these companies face are enormous.
9. STRATEGY: I also was short a bitcoin stock called Strategy. It is the first bitcoin repository stock and was trading at more than double what I think are eventually worthless holdings. I lost money at first and then made 150% in 2025. It finally dipped near its net asset value in bitcoin value. I exited that triple inverse short ETF position about a month ago. Keep an eye out -- if Strategy were to irrationally bloom again, I am going to buy one of those short ETFs.
10. CASH: I keep significant cash usually in US Treasury money market funds. As I said in the quote at the start, the squeeze may not be worth the juice. The market is driven by wild speculation, option traders, large margin positions, and crazy gambling fever. My macro prediction is it is an obvious market peak, like the years 2000 and 2008. Because of that insight, I always underperform on the upside days. But cash will be king when Trump crashes, which seems to be his only plan other than supporting his bitcoin scam.
11. APPLE & NVDIA. On a funny note, I went back and reviewed my prior holdings of Apple and Nvidia. I was curious how much I left on the table years ago. I purchased Apple stock for $20 as my very first buy of stock in 1996. I sold it at a loss a few years later. I think if I held it would be worth millions. I did buy Apple back again, but I sold it later when it was no longer cheap. I also purchased several thousand dollars of Nvidia stock in 1998 and sold it in Feb. 2000. I saw the dotcom debacle coming out and got out. I thought I was smart. I largely avoided big dotcom bust and losses. But if I held on, it would now be worth $4.6M today. The story is you can think you are the smartest guy in the room, make great stock picks, and time the market expertly, but that isn’t always best outcome.
12. COLLECTIBLES: Finally, a word about collectibles. I went over my childhood first day of issue and stamp collection. They are like beanie babies. The value is really nominal. The First Man On The Moon stamp isn’t worth much more than its postage value. The first day of issue covers with your name on the envelope are not worth much more than the cost of the printed special envelope and stamp. At the end of 2025, I packed them up and sent most of my stamps to an online charity called “Worthy Causes” which takes collectible donations. If I sold them, I would get the face value of the mint stamps and be subject to a 28% collectible capital gain tax, plus the 3.8% Obama investment tax, plus a 9.5% Maryland income tax on any excess.
DISCLOSURE: I am not giving investment advice. Follow your own north star. Don’t rely on anyone else. If you make mistakes, at least they will be your own mistakes.