Some Comments On the Government Shutdown and the Political Impact
"This is the way the world ends / Not with a bang but a whimper."
--T.S. Eliot
As the House of Representatives meets to vote, I am presuming a positive outcome and that President Trump will sign into law a bill providing for continuing funding of federal government. I just read Tim Kaine’s moderate but persuasive explanation of why he provided the pivotal 60th vote for the bill thus breaking the filibuster. I find it persuasive. At Senator Kaine’s (VA Democrat) insistence, the law provides for funding the federal government largely at existing levels, reinstatement of all furloughed federal employees, and prohibiting new furloughs through the end of January 2026. Thus, it appears that we have reached the end of the government layoffs. The Republicans held firm, promising only a vote on the Obamacare health subsidies no later than mid-December. And with that the longest running federal government shutdown in history is likely coming to an end with a whimper and not a bang.
The Democrats obviously caved in and got very little for their efforts. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (NY Democrat) has come in for heavy criticism. If you are going to shut down the government for that long then you ought to have some better clarity of purpose than to take what was offered even before the shutdown occurred.
Nonetheless, to a certain extent the Democrats got what they wanted in the outcome of the November 8th off year election cycle. They won some big victories in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial and legislative races. The margins were more than 15% with some pollsters predicting much tighter races particularly in New Jersey. They displaced a relatively popular Republican Virginia State Attorney General with a flawed candidate and won swept State Supreme Court races in Pennsylvania. In both Virginia and New Jesey they racked up victories in the State legislature. In California, they got voters to approved a Democratic gerrymander to address the Republican efforts elsewhere. The Democrats even won races in red states like Alabama where the legislature no longer has a Republican super-majority. So, in Mr. Schumer’s defense, the major political victory was in hand, and the chaos and harm from a lingering shutdown no longer served much political purpose.
What I find interesting in the election outcome is the probable role the shutdown had in motivating Democratic and independent voters to go to the polls and cast votes against Mr. Trump’s anointed candidates. Spoiler alert for the Republicans – troll, furlough, and fire massive numbers of federal employees and government contract workers and guess what – you can get pummeled at the polls. In places like Northern Virginia and even in rural areas, the Democrats had significant electoral gains. Notably, in places like Alabama with its large and growing federal work force, the Democrats made gains. The politics of the shutdown seemed to have worked against the Republicans.
I am betting we just saw the peak Trump moment. The bell just rung. Next comes the Supreme Court ruling on the tariffs. And get prepared for more inflation to kick in. As a result, the stock market bubble will finally roll over. We are not going to have Tesla AI robots performing our government contracts for quite some time. As the congressional races heat up, some Republicans are possibly going to find a spine and will distance themselves from the authoritarian excesses of the Administration. And next November 2026, the American voters will render a judgment on the Administration that is unlikely to be a surprising result for an off year election. The incumbent party which controls all three branches of government is going to get the blame.
So, the hopeful message of the Democratic Party cave in on the shutdown is that the center has held. The moderate Republicans won’t be forced to eviscerate the filibuster right which has a check on majority power. It took eight Democratic senators to defect and say this shutdown was nutty and no longer worth the pain inflicted on the nation. It hurt federal workers and contractors. It was causing chaos in the skies and hunger fears to roam the land. It was aimed at helping struggling Americans with health care costs. But that battle isn’t over. It perhaps will avoid the further collateral damage over SNAP (food stamps) that Trump viscously aims to inflict.
Was the shutdown worth it – probably not. Hopefully, the lesson is that we Americans should not do crazy stuff like paralyze our federal government over policy differences. Instead, we will make budgetary compromises where necessary to achieve consensus. Elections have significance. The point is to win them. The Democrats did precisely that on November 8, 2025, and now they need to focus on 2026. And what is left of centrist elements in the Republican office holders need to focus on what they must do to avoid the blue wave which is likely coming for them. And perhaps it will take more than “scary” ads about hairy boys in women’s locker rooms.